Can Iraq be Won?
(Part 1)

Accepting that the United States is in Iraq (nothing will change history) the real question is whether it should "stay the course" or "cut and run." The answer to those questions, in turn, hinges on whether Iraq can be won. Of course, one has to ask exactly what the term "won" means in this context.

Before that, however --

First off, Iraq is not Vietnam (at least not yet). Unlike Vietnam or any other insurgency that succeeded in assuming and consolidating power over the entire country, there isn't a single organized group or leader for the Iraqi insrugents to rally behind. The Vietnamese had Ho Chi Minh, the Cubans had Castro, the Chinese had Mao and the Russians had Lenin, no such central figure exists in Iraq today. For so long as that remains true, I very much doubt that the Iraqi insurgency will ever go beyond roadside bombings and other acts of terrorism. However, if a central figure leading the insurgency does arise, well, God help the Iraqi Government and the United States.

Secondly, even if a central figure to lead the insurgency never comes out of the woodwork, there's still a very real possibility of civil war. In that scenario, Iraq becomes the new Somalia. A state with no central authority, only warlords claiming their own little piece of the country.

Lastly, let's be clear on one thing, the neo-cons image of a democratic flowering in the Middle East led by Iraq is as much a fantasy as reality in the short and medium terms.

So, what does "won" mean in this context?

I submit that it means a cental Iraqi government that, while not necessarily a full-fledged democracy, is at least legitimate in the eyes of the Iraqi people and is not hostile to the United States or the West. Note that I never said "peaceful". More likely than not, the best we can hope for is an Iraq somewhat like Israel or, for that matter, Russia (i.e. a functioning central government that continues to be beset by periodic terrorist attacks from within and without.)

So, can Iraq be "won"?

I think so. The question is "how?"

(Part 2 coming up)